Analysis: Colin Allred’s Chances of Unseating Ted Cruz

Congressman Colin Allred is the all-out favorite to win the Democratic nomination for Senate in Texas. Is there a path to victory to unseat incumbent and career hysteric, Ted Cruz?

Colin Allred is a seasoned democrat with the money and credentials to kick Ted Cruz out of the Senate.That doesn’t mean he can.

He’s yet to face a host of primary challengers and become the Democratic nominee faced with the uphill battle to defeat Ted Cruz, but he remains the all-out favorite. Maybe because Beto O’Rourke got his clock absolutely cleaned by incumbent Texas governor Greg Abbott, in 2022 this race isn’t yet generating the kind of media buzz that O’Rourke’s 2018 contest against Cruz did.

With Beto’s back-to-back statewide failures in Texas, Allred’s ability to grab national attention is going to be challenged. I’m not saying that’s fair or unfair, but I think it’s the truth.

A Quick Primer on Colin Allred

As of this writing, fourteen candidates are running to win the March 5, 2024 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Three candidates lead in fundraising, polling, and endorsements: Colin Allred (D), Roland Gutierrez (D), and Carl Sherman Sr. (D). As of January 19, 2024, Allred had raised $13,561,667, followed by Gutierrez with $632,360 and Sherman with $82,775.

Gutierrez has tried to draw a contrast between himself and Allred, saying he would be more of a fighter and that Allred is too willing to compromise, but just looking at the primary, it’s highly likely that Allred will be the nominee and will not need to spend much of his war chest to win in March.

Allred is a 3rd term Congressman and has the voting record of a modern Democrat in the Nancy Pelosi era, meaning he has 100% ratings from NARAL and the AFL-CIO, and a 97% rating from League of Conservation Voters. He currently represents Texas’ 32nd Congressional District, a safe Democratic district comprising parts of northeast Dallas and nearby suburbs (with no rural areas). He won his most recent election by 30 points after carrying the district by about 10 points in his first two elections, so he’s demonstrated an ability to expand his coalition beyond automatic Democratic voters. 

That said, he’s in the news recently for doing what Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and many other elected Democrats have recently done, calling for Joe Biden to do more to alleviate the effects of the migrant crisis on communities. 

Just a few days ago, he joined every single House Republican and a handful of centrist border Democrats like Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzales in signing a letter “condemning the Biden administration’s open-border policies.”

Despite that, he was immediately blasted by Ted Cruz as “flip-flopping” on immigration because he’s consistently voted with Democrats on issues concerning immigration (Allred has a 0% rating from Heritage Action, one of the anti-immigrant vote-tracking groups on the right).

For an example of a nakedly anti-immigrant measure that recently passed in the House, Protecting Our Communities from Failure to Secure the Border Act (HR 5283) would prohibit the federal government from using certain federally administered lands to provide housing to any non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) who have not been admitted into the United States.

Every Republican and 6 Democrats voted for this bill. Colin Allred was not one of them.

Ted Cruz is Sitting on a Mountain of Money and Solid Name ID

My take on the Cruz coalition in Texas: It’s intact. Cruz has always been unpopular in terms of favorability, but Texas is a strong Republican state, and he’s a pretty solid example of what Texas Republicans want.

Consider this: According to the FEC, Ted Cruz is currently the top fundraiser in the entire U.S. Senate, having raised $40 million this cycle so far. Allred’s $13 million is just short of Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), each with $14 million, and just ahead of Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) with $12 million.

Put simply, Ted Cruz has the biggest war chest of any candidate running for Senate in the U.S.

Allred’s Very Narrow Path to Victory Goes Right Through Abortion

Abortion and immigration are going to be huge issues in the minds of Texas voters, but it’s hard to know exactly which way they will cut. Texas is a massive state with four huge cities and more rural areas than any state except Alaska. Framing those issues will work for and against both candidates in different regions, but Cruz is going to have plenty of money for big ad buys and brand reinforcement as a MAGA Republican.

For Allred to best someone with Cruz’s notoriety and name ID, he’ll need some Republicans to switch teams. More Americans are now registered as independent or Unaffiliated than ever in history, but Allred will need every single Democrat, a majority of independents, and a decent slice of Texans who consider themselves Republicans. There’s no way to overstate what an uphill battle that will be for him (or really anyone).

But back to abortion. Do a majority of Texans want change on guns and abortion? If they don’t, Allred really has no chance of victory. But we’ve seen around the country, even in a state as red as Kentucky, Democrats can win statewide with the right message on abortion.

There’s no magic bullet here. But with the Senate up for grabs, the eyes of the nation may once again be on the Friendship State. It would be, to put it mildly, one of the greatest upsets in recent history.